The First Afghan War shows how threat interpretation and policy can fuse.
British officials feared Russian influence in Afghanistan and sent Alexander Burnes to Kabul. National Army Museum records note that Burnes favored supporting Dost Mohammed rather than replacing him.
Lord Auckland instead chose regime change, backing Shah Shuja and invading Afghanistan in 1839.
The campaign was initially successful, but the occupation unraveled and ended in one of Britain’s worst nineteenth-century military disasters.
The case is useful not because one dissenting adviser was automatically right about everything, but because it preserves the difference between intelligence that tests policy and intelligence used to make a chosen policy appear inevitable.